Last week, former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö presented a report on strengthening Europe’s civil and military resilience and preparedness. At the press conference where the report was unveiled, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasised the need for a “whole-of-society approach” to security.
But what practical steps can the EU take to ensure that all sectors of society contribute to strengthening its resilience to crises? And how can collaboration be effectively coordinated among EU member states, which often hold differing views on security issues?
Studio Europa Maastricht sat down with Jean-Pierre Van Aubel, Senior Expert on Defence Policy and Strategy at the European External Action Service (EEAS), to discuss these questions. Van Aubel, the EEAS representative in President Niinistö’s support team, contributed to writing the report. He will also be a panelist at our upcoming event, “Securing Europe: A Local Perspective”, organized by Studio Europa and Pakhuis de Zwijger on behalf of the European Commission as part of the “Local Europe – The new European Commission” series. Join us on November 12 by registering here.
Europe’s crisis preparedness: Connecting the dots
As Spain grapples with devastating floods in Valencia, the question of Europe’s preparedness for crises is more urgent than ever. One of the issues the EU faces regarding security and preparedness for diverse threats—from pandemics and natural disasters to war and supply chain disruptions—is the complexity of coordination, says Van Aubel.
“There are so many different layers of coordination. Already at the Brussels-level, we have the European Commission, a European External Action Service, and different structures dealing with emergency response. And then of course a lot of coordination takes place within Member States, at national, regional and local level. While writing the report on the EU’s resilience, we discovered that the EU has a large number of sectoral crisis management coordination mechanisms, for example on food, health, climate, energy, and others. If you look at the crises that we are facing, they are seldom one-dimensional. They are often multi-dimensional and cross border. That also demands a comprehensive, whole-of-government and whole-of-society response. This is one of the main points of the Niinistö-report—we need to do it better and that starts in Brussels. We need to connect the dots and get rid of the silos.”
Strengthening societal resilience beyond the Brussels bubble
Another crucial step, Van Aubel adds, is engaging citizens and not only institutions:
“In Brussels the natural focus is on our own bubble, but the EU is more than that. We need to increase our societal resilience. We need to prepare citizens all over Europe for the wide variety of crises ranging from natural disasters as a consequence of climate change to hybrid threats, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to the darkest scenario of an armed aggression on our territory. This week we very clearly saw the consequences of climate change in Valencia and surroundings. We see how devastating that is and what the consequences are. People were not entirely well prepared for this, also because events unfold very fast. It will always be difficult to avoid such events, but we can be better prepared to control damage. With regard to hybrid threats—cyberattacks, disinformation, many l EU citizens are confronted regularly with disinformation, but do not always recognise this. The impact of this can be huge. We need to better prepare citizens for this.”
“We need to prepare citizens all over Europe for the wide variety of crises ranging from natural disasters as a consequence of climate change to hybrid threats, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to the darkest scenario of an armed aggression on our territory.”
Preparing for military threats: the role of citizens and industry
One of the most concerning thoughts for many Europeans is the looming threat of military conflict. Van Aubel believes it is the EU’s responsibility to also be prepared for this scenario:
“Unfortunately, this is something that we can no longer rule out. There is a real danger that one of our member states, or even several of them, might face armed aggression on their territory. We see that, of course, with the Russian threat coming from the east. This is also why we need to increase our European defence readiness, boost our investments, develop the necessary defence capabilities and strengthen our European defence industry. The EU has to take more responsibility here, but in a way that complements NATO. This will be one of the main priorities of the new Commission. The ongoing Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is showing that this threat is real. It is something we need to be prepared for, and we need to do it in a way that will not scare people. If such an event happens, they should know at least the basics of what to do. You can do that through education, through training, through exercises—there are various ways to do it. The Finnish model is an interesting one in this regard, but also The Netherlands is already taking measures to improve the resilience of its society”
“The ongoing Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is showing that this threat is real. It is something we need to be prepared for, and we need to do it in a way that will not scare people.”
Van Aubel also stresses the importance of closer public-private cooperation:
“Private companies and industries need to be involved in this whole story. During COVID, we saw how dependent we were on simple things like masks and vaccines, and we were dependent on countries where we perhaps do not want to depend on. We saw something similar when the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine started. The EU and its Member States delivered a lot of military support from the start and we are still doing this. The consequences are twofold: firstly, our European industry has severe difficulties with producing rapidly, large amounts and for a longer period; and secondly, we emptied most of our own stocks. So we have a double problem: we have difficulty supporting Ukraine on the longer term because the production and delivery of military equipment, ammunition, air defence etc. takes a long time, and we can’t rapidly refill our own stocks. That is not a comfortable position under the current threats.”
EU vs NATO: Cooperation, not competition
With Niinistö’s report advocating for closer EU-NATO cooperation, questions arise about how to strengthen this partnership, especially in light of the recent U.S. presidential election and the risk of a new president downgrading support for NATO. Van Aubel believes the EU must change its approach.
“The message is and remains, ‘You Europeans need to get your act together. You need to do more.’ So we need to think about how Europeans can step up and how the EU can help NATO in that regard. What NATO is lacking are not American, Turkish, or Canadian forces and capabilities; it is European forces and capabilities. European countries are lagging behind in terms of defence investments and in providing the necessary forces and capabilities. The number of NATO Allies that spend 2 percent of their GDP on defence is rapidly growing, but there are still quite a few European NATO Allies that do not meet this important NATO target. And one can even wonder if 2 percent is enough these days
“The message is and remains, ‘You Europeans need to get your act together. You need to do more.’”
Van Aubel adds that strengthening the European defence industry is key to enhancing resilience:
“Compared to the U.S., we have 15 different types of frigates, while the U.S. has only four; we have 19 different types of tanks, while the U.S. has only one. You can imagine that this makes cooperation in an operation not always very easy. We need to reduce our dependencies and overcome this fragmentation. That does not mean, of course, that we cannot buy defence capabilities in the U.S. or elsewhere anymore , but we need to produce more in the EU. One advantage the EU has over NATO is that the EU has several financial instruments in support of defence and a huge budget. But while the total EU budget is 1.2 trillion euros, we are only spending 1 percent of that on defence. That is difficult to explain in a time when we face war on European territory and in the Middle East, growing instability in Africa and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Closer to home, we also see that stability in the Western Balkans is not fully guaranteed yet At the same time, we face growing hybrid threats, cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns. Being prepared for all these crisis and threats means that you need to invest in it. The total EU budget as such will not grow, so Member States need to re-prioritise. This is not easy, but it is a discussion we need to have sooner rather than later.”
“This wider toolbox is what makes the EU unique, also because the answer to crises is seldom only military. You need a wider response—diplomacy, sanctions, economic policy, combined with military action is often the best solution.”
When it comes to collective defence Van Aubel believes that NATO has a primary role and that the EU and NATO should work together as complementary forces and not rivals:
“NATO’s core task is collective defence, i.e., defending our territory. We as a Union have to see how to best contribute to that. At the same time, collective defence is not the only thing we are facing: I mentioned already hybrid threats, cyberattacks, disinformation, but even our security in space and at sea are at stake. Take the example of the Red Sea where Houthis are attacking our commercial ships. That seriously threatens our economic security. The EU has an important naval operation (ASPIDES) there that helps protection commercial ships. If we don’t do this, prices of many products will go seriously up and European citizens will directly notice this. These are all things that the EU can and should tackle. The EU has a very large toolbox with mostly civilian instruments that it can combine with a humble military instrument. This wider toolbox is what makes the EU unique, also because the answer to crises is seldom only military. You need a wider response—diplomacy, sanctions, economic policy, combined with military action is often the best solution. Having said that, the importance of the military instrument is growing in the current geopolitical situation. Sometimes the relation between the EU and NATO is depicted as competitive and that even includes accusations from time to time about the EU duplicating NATO. In my view, there is no duplication. We are different organisations with a different nature. If you look at the military side of the EU, you cannot compare this to NATO in terms of numbers and structures. Plus it is embedded in this broader toolbox. We should not play that competition game. Twenty-three members of the EU are also NATO allies, so they are members of both. We all have an interest to ensure that both organisations support each other and work in a complementary way.”
“I am also confident that with the new leadership, both on the NATO- and the EU side, we have a chance to really further strengthen that cooperation.”
The support for Ukraine is a positive example of this cooperation:
“Since day one, the EU and NATO have acting together. Political declarations were made together in support of Ukraine. Now we see that NATO is also providing training to Ukrainians, something the EU has been doing for the past two years. We coordinate that, which only makes sense. I am also confident that with the new leadership, both on the NATO- and the EU side, we have a chance to really further strengthen that cooperation. The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had a meeting last week with the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, and they announced they would set up an EU-NATO high level task force to do all these things even better together. So from the highest level, they have already committed to work on this, and I’m confident the incoming HR/VP and defence commissioner will closely work together with the new leader of NATO,” Van Aubel concludes.
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Jean-Pierre Van Aubel is a Senior Expert on Defence Policy and Strategy at the European External Action Service (EEAS),
*Banner Photo courtesy of NATO
