Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States of America. His victory was announced even before our The Morning After event had begun. His quick win and the unexpected clear outcome took many by (negative) surprise, but it fueled a deeper, more urgent dialogue as attendees and panellists came together to examine what Trump’s re-election could mean for the future of EU-US relations.
Hosted by Studio Europa Maastricht, Maastricht University, and the Charlemagne Prize Foundation, our event on 6 November 2024 gathered experts — featuring scholars, journalists, and economists from across Europe and fields — at Brandweerkantine to provide real-time insights on the impact of this result for Europe’s strategic autonomy and security, for the U.S., and beyond.
As attendees awaited the results from the final US states, live insights poured in from our panellists and special guest journalist Thilo Koessler, calling in from Washington, D.C., where he described the mood as “depressed” among those wary of Trump’s polarising impact. Trump’s victory, he noted, has exacerbated the division within the US, with academics largely supporting Harris and other segments of the population backing Trump. This deep ideological rift, Koessler warned, could have profound consequences for transatlantic relations as the EU contemplates an increasingly isolationist America.
A divided America, a fragile NATO, and Europe’s defence dilemma
Ralph Sina, former head of the ARD radio studio in Washington, painted a stark picture, calling Trump’s return to office a “nightmare” scenario for Europe. He warned that mass deportations of refugees could become reality under Trump’s administration. For Ukraine, Sina argued, the implications are dire: Trump’s reluctance to support Ukraine could weaken NATO and leave Europe more vulnerable.
The alliance itself, Sina stressed, is “highly fragile,” underscoring the precariousness of Europe’s security reliance on the US. Yet, in what might be a silver lining, he speculated that Trump’s divisive stance could serve as a “common enemy,” prompting Europe to unify and take greater responsibility for its own defence.
Strategic dependency and the search for allies
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, reminded the audience that Europe’s dependencies go beyond defence. For years, the EU has relied on Russia for energy, China for economic supply chains, and the US for security. Trump’s re-election, Tordoir explained, only deepens this dependency, with Europe increasingly beholden to US decisions across all major strategic areas.
Yet, Tordoir offered a glimmer of optimism: Europe is not alone. He pointed to potential coalitions with like-minded countries outside the US, suggesting that the EU could find allies to help it navigate the growing complexities of the global order. Tordoir also argued that Europe can defend itself, if it can summon the political will for action — a stance echoed by other panellists who agreed that the path to strategic autonomy is within reach, but politically fraught.
The narratives shaping American politics
Professor Étienne Augé from Erasmus University approached the topic from a cultural perspective, emphasising the power of storytelling in shaping political landscapes. Kamala Harris, he suggested, represents the American dream, a symbol of diversity and opportunity. In contrast, Trump’s narrative, though compelling, is built on a “fabricated” foundation that appeals to the fears and frustrations of his base. For Augé, this story-driven approach has positioned Trump as a “bully” to the EU, complicating Europe’s efforts to build a cooperative, rather than competitive, relationship with the US.
Augé argued that it’s crucial for the EU to recognise and depict Trump for who he is — a leader whose aggressive nationalism could strain transatlantic bonds. By facing the realities of Trump’s America, Europe may find itself better prepared to define and assert its interests.
European defence: necessary but limited without the US
Bram Boxhoorn, adjunct professor at Webster University, spoke on the reality of Europe’s current defence limitations. He pointed out that Trump’s earlier presidency, with its “America First” rhetoric, had already pushed European countries like the Netherlands to accelerate their defence capabilities. Yet Boxhoorn argued that Europe’s progress remains limited. “The EU has no other choice than moving with the US,” he asserted, noting that the EU’s collective defence capabilities are insufficient for total independence. Boxhoorn also emphasised the unpredictability of the situation, urging caution as Europe watches to see how Trump’s policies toward NATO and European allies will unfold.
A call for unity and self-reliance
Moderator Roberta Haar, Professor of Foreign Policy Analysis and Transatlantic Relations at Maastricht University, skillfully guided the conversation, drawing connections between the panellists’ perspectives and framing the discussion within the broader context of EU-US relations. With Trump’s re-election as a stark reminder of Europe’s ongoing dependence on the US, Haar highlighted the critical question of the day: can Europe forge a path toward self-reliance, or will it remain bound to an increasingly unpredictable ally?
Reflections and the road ahead
The Morning After provided a powerful forum for grappling with the uncertainties of Trump’s re-election. The panellists brought forward a range of insights, from Europe’s vulnerability without NATO to the potential for coalition-building with other nations and the role of narratives in shaping public perception.
Ultimately, Europe stands at a crossroads. Whether it chooses to deepen its own defence initiatives, strengthen diplomatic alliances beyond the US, or foster unity across its member states, the road to greater autonomy is complex but increasingly essential. As Bram Boxhoorn pointed out, we must “wait and see” how Trump’s policies evolve, but Europe’s actions today may well determine its resilience in an increasingly multipolar world.
