The war between the US and Israel and Iran, which broke out over the weekend, unexpectedly for most European leaders, is drawing in more and more actors in the region, threatening to escalate into a global conflict. Studio Europa Maastricht asked Nele Marianne Ewers-Peters, Assistant Professor of European Security at Maastricht University, for an expert commentary on the EU’s role in this conflict and its potential response.
How does the U.S. – Israel decision to conduct strikes on Iran without European involvement reflect the current state of transatlantic security cooperation?
“I think it’s actually a very good reflection of what we already know about Trump’s foreign policy. Under Trump, US foreign policy follows a realist approach. Europe is not his first choice as a cooperation partner. Trump and the US know where Europe stands on military campaigns against other countries, whether those campaigns are justified or not. He knows that Europe is generally unhappy about military strikes, especially in its wider neighbourhood. In this case, in the Middle East, Europe is thinking about the long-term consequences for itself, whereas the US is primarily focused on its own interests.
“There are problems in the transatlantic relationship between the US and Europe”
So yes, it does show that there are problems in the transatlantic relationship between the US and Europe. If the US had discussed this with Europe beforehand, it likely would not have been in the US interest. I know that from a European perspective this can feel like being neglected or sidelined, but that’s often how international politics works. Even with your closest partner, which the US still is for Europe on certain questions, interests do not always align. When it comes to European security, the US remains Europe’s closest partner. But in other regions of the world, the US is not necessarily Europe’s closest partner, and vice versa.”
With Cyprus being targeted by Iranian drones, energy prices rising, and the risk of new migration flows toward Europe, is the EU prepared to handle the security fallout of this conflict?
“The short answer is no. The longer answer is that there are several reasons why the EU is not prepared to formulate a coherent response, both to what the US and Israel have done against Iran and to Iran’s counterstrikes. One reason is the turf wars we are seeing between the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. I think this institutional tension is one of the key reasons why there is currently no effective or coherent EU strategy. Von der Leyen convened the Security College on Monday, while Kallas emphasised that the European Council needs to come together because foreign policy is ultimately the responsibility of the Member States, not the Commission. This kind of institutional friction is a major obstacle at the moment.
Another issue is that Member States are not on the same page. I looked at their responses: most condemn Iran for repressing its own population. They also condemn Iran’s potential nuclear weapons programme and its strikes in the Middle East against US and UK air bases. Spain was the only Member State to openly condemn the US–Israeli attack, arguing that it was unilateral, not coordinated with Europeans, and currently lacks clear justification under international law. So Member States are divided over whom to condemn and whom to side with. This obviously makes an efficient, coherent, and effective EU response much more difficult.
There is also the question of whether the EU actually has the means to respond. On paper, Europe has significant military capabilities. But Europe traditionally prioritises diplomacy first and military action second. So at this stage, the EU’s main tool is likely diplomatic mediation, trying to use its diplomatic skills to de-escalate the situation.
It is frustrating, and I understand that frustration. One might think there should be established mechanisms by now. It has been four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and there has also been the war between Israel and Hamas. You would expect more preparedness from Brussels. But the EU does not really have a comprehensive policy toward the Middle East. There was a window of opportunity with the changes in Syria, for example, where Europe could have taken a more proactive approach, given that Israel is next door and Iran is around the corner. But the EU didn’t take that opportunity.
“You would expect more preparedness from Brussels. But the EU does not really have a comprehensive policy toward the Middle East”
At the same time, the EU is heavily distracted by Russia’s war against Ukraine, which it sees as a direct security threat. Developments in the Middle East are often perceived as secondary because they are not in Europe itself and the EU is not directly involved—apart from certain air bases belonging to Member States. The UK, of course, plays a role here, but it is no longer an EU Member State.
What I do find interesting is that France, Germany, and the UK, who are already closely aligned over Ukraine, are now also coordinating directly on Iran. It is noteworthy that the UK is included in these discussions, as it does have its own strategies for the Middle East.”
Do you expect a more decisive response from Brussels if the conflict escalates further?
“That’s a bit of a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it would be good for the EU to get involved, primarily on the diplomatic side. This could include sanctions, capacity-building measures, or support for the Iranian people. The EU cannot simply stay out of the conflict, given what it claims to stand for. It presents itself as an international security actor and as a defender of multilateralism and the rule of law. To uphold those values and norms, it needs to be involved in some way.
On the other hand, the EU is already heavily engaged in supporting Ukraine. In terms of its capabilities and resources, I am not sure it is willing or able at this stage to devote significant additional capacity to Iran.”
Dr Nele Marianne Ewers-Peters is Assistant Professor for European Security in the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASoS) at Maastricht University. She obtained her PhD in International Relations from the University of Kent, and previously held positions at Helmut Schmidt University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and University College London. Her research is at the intersection of European security and global governance with a focus on security cooperation within and between NATO and the EU, and the contemporary European security architecture.
