How will the Hungarians vote, and what do the results of the parliamentary elections mean for the future of the Netherlands and Europe? We discussed these and more questions ahead of what may well be the most important elections in Europe this year at the Lumière cinema in Maastricht.
Ferenc Laczó, Assistant Professor of European history at Maastricht University, wrote an expert commentary about what the results of the elections mean for Hungary and the future of Europe. You can read about his insights here.
In a packed auditorium, dozens of interested people gathered on 9 April to discuss the possible outcomes. The event kicked off with the screening of the documentary ‘The Hungarian Playbook’ by filmmakers Bence Máté & Áron Szentpéteri. The documentary highlights the erosion of Hungarian democracy and how relations with the EU are steadily deteriorating. The film helped the audience to better understand the country’s current trajectory and why it matters for Europe as a whole.
This was followed by a panel discussion and a Q&A session. The panellists included leading figures from the worlds of politics, academia and journalism: Katalin Cseh (a member of the opposition in the Hungarian National Assembly), Jesse Pinster (an investigative journalist at Follow the Money), and Ferenc Laczó (assistant professor of European history at Maastricht University). Elisa Braun (chief Brussels correspondent at Euractiv) moderated the evening.
‘Don’t celebrate just yet’
According to the experts, the elections are not a fair contest: for instance, there is no debate between the two key figures, Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar, and the government is disseminating a great deal of propaganda containing fake news or the opposite, overly positive figures regarding Orbán’s policies. Furthermore, Russia and the United States are supporting the incumbent Prime Minister Orbán.
In the meantime, it has become clear that Magyar’s Tisza Party has won the elections with a two-thirds majority, and that Orbán’s leadership is coming to an end after 16 years. But according to Cseh, that does not mean we should celebrate just yet. “Even if Orbán loses (and that’s what I’m hoping for, I hope a lot of people are), we should not think ‘Oh, this problem is gone’. This is not gone. Orbán is like a bug in the system. He found the loopholes. These loopholes are still there. If the EU doesn’t change, if there are no systemic reforms—if one country can still hold the whole community captive with their vetoes, by selling their votes to Russian oligarchs—then somebody else will do it.”
“Orbán is like a bug in the system. He found the loopholes. These loopholes are still there. If the EU doesn’t change, somebody else will use the loopholes”
She continues: “Maybe in one year, maybe in five, I don’t know in which country, but it will happen again. So Orbán is not an individual problem; it’s a systemic failure that we could have this happen inside the European Union, and we should fix that.”
After, Ferenc Laczó goes on to explain how the recent elections were plagued by fake news and propaganda. “This election campaign is also shaped and distorted by various secret services attempting to intervene. The so-called Panyi affair (a Hungarian journalist who has been accused of espionage by Orbán’s government and who has been charged) is the perfect example—that there are leaks here, the Russians are trying to intervene, and some Western intelligence agencies are trying to pre-empt. And I think we have a very new situation now. This is an open battle for the future of Hungary.”
Jesse Pinster also doubts whether Vice-President JD Vance’s endorsement of Orbán has actually helped him win more votes. “How many people in Hungary are really enthusiastic about JD Vance? How many votes is this actually going to win Viktor Orbán? Well, he’s actually losing votes because of it.”
Predictions
The experts also shared their own predictions for the elections.
Katalin Cseh: “I’m hoping that Tisza (Péter Magyar’s party) wins and I’m hoping for a Hungary that finally behaves as a constructive partner at European negotiating tables and gets rid of corruption and the Russian route.”
Ferenc Laczó: “My guess is that Tisza is going to win, but it’s going to be closer than people are predicting at the moment.”
Jesse Pinster: “I agree with Laczó.”
Elisa Braun: “I agree that Tizsa has a clear lead. But I also think it will be closer than we expect, particularly because of the differences between rural and urban areas. I think Orbán still has some room for manoeuvre here.”
Take a look at the photos below for a glimpse of the event and join us later this year at another gathering where we will be covering the US mid-term elections. Keep an eye on our website for further details and to register.
