Germany and Europe as a whole have woken up to a new political reality. For the first time since the Second World War, the far-right party, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has celebrated a landslide victory in a state election in the key German state of Saxony-Anhalt. The party’s record result, achieved amid historically high voter turnout, reflects growing support for its anti-migration, anti-climate and ultimately anti-European agenda.
Studio Europa Maastricht spoke with Christine Neuhold, Professor of EU Democratic Governance at Maastricht University, about the election result, what it means for German politics and what its wider implications could be for the European Union.
A new political reality
The result of these elections came as a shock even to experienced German politicians, Neuhold says. While the AfD’s rise was not unexpected, the scale of its success demonstrates how profoundly Germany’s political landscape has changed:
“AfD nearly missed the absolute majority – but just. And the governing parties, the ‘old parties’, as they call them in the electoral programme, really crashed enormously. I found it quite surprising that the SPD, which has around nine percent, had a representative saying, ‘Well, we’re not doing that bad, are we?’ I was thinking: apparently, we are dealing with a new reality, where one is used to the parties that have (co-)governed the country for decades now being used to very small figures. And the AfD keeps rising. They really took off like a comet. It doesn’t come as a surprise, but it is still a watershed, and indeed it is also a message to the government and Chancellor Merz in particular.”
The immediate question is what happens next. The election does not automatically threaten Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, and the AfD is not part of the federal government. But the result puts pressure on Germany’s established parties at a moment when the country is already facing political polarisation and difficult economic and social questions.
A German result with European consequences
At first glance, there is an obvious argument for treating the election as a regional matter. The representatives elected in Saxony-Anhalt do not directly determine European policy, and the result does not immediately change Germany’s position in EU negotiations as such, Neuhold underlines. But Germany is not an ordinary member state. Its political weight, economic importance and historical role in European integration mean that major changes in its domestic politics inevitably attract attention elsewhere in Europe.
“If you were not following politics at all, then you might think that the elections in Saxony-Anhalt are not very significant for Europe. But indeed, it has a lot to do with Europe, because it is in Germany, and Germany is one of the main forces in Europe. It is also one of the forces that was very strongly for European integration so far,” Neuhold explains.
“This is a right-wing party, which is, of course, very significant, given Germany’s history, so it scares people, and it also scares people in Germany. It is also a trend that as you very well know is also prevalent in other member states. We will also have to see what happens in Saxony-Anhalt. Will the AfD be able to govern? If they manage somehow to get into government, that also means that, for the first time, they would be in the Bundesrat, the upper house. That again has a very big impact on the disruption of internal German politics,” the expert adds.
However, even if AfD doesn’t reach the governing level, the ripples of their win will be felt across Europe, Neuhold warns.
“For Europe it is a signal that these parties don’t go away, and it might also mean something for the German elections themselves. Of course, now AfD has been able to get enormous media attention. Everybody knew that there was a chance of them getting a lot of votes, so the media attention is also very large, and the AfD is now in the spotlight. It’s centre stage across Europe.”
Copycats won’t pass
The more attention AfD receives, the harder it becomes for the established parties to treat its rise as a temporary protest vote. Yet that does not necessarily mean that the mainstream parties should respond by moving closer to the right. Neuhold sees a danger in precisely that strategy, which has already been enacted across Europe:
“We’ve seen in many different member states that governing parties or traditional parties shift more to the right. But that’s not what the voter will reward. People will vote for the original and not for the ‘copycat’. I very strongly believe, which is probably also naïve, that it is important to stick to your values. Copying these parties normally doesn’t gain you votes, and it might even mean you lose votes from those who have voted for you before. But what it shows is that it seems that people want simple answers.”
The dilemma that the German government is now facing is truly complex, Neuhold underlines:
“It is very difficult to govern such a big country in times of polarisation, in times of crisis, after COVID. I think the pandemic has caused an enormous rift in our societies that we haven’t managed yet.”
Simple solutions for complex Europe
The appeal of the AfD, according to Neuhold, lies partly in its ability to offer straightforward answers to problems that are much more complicated. Its programme places a strong emphasis on migration, family and traditional values, framing politics as a choice between taking care of German citizens and putting resources elsewhere.
“There are no simple answers, but voters seem to go for simple answers if you look at these elections. AfD went on a very rigid anti-migration course: Germany first, German families first. It’s also interesting that the programme starts with family, it’s very traditional values. It’s also this very simple answer: ‘We’ll do something for you, Germans.’ With this view, insinuating that the government has not been concentrating on German citizens.”
While the AfD’s result does not mean that Germany’s position in the EU will suddenly change, but it will weaken Berlin, Neuhold says:
“I think, per se, it doesn’t immediately mean that European politics as we know it are affected. But it will have ripple effects. It causes disruption in German politics, and that, of course, might take away energy from European politics in some sense. And it’s a very important signal.”
A fight for young Europeans
That warning becomes more significant when looking at the age profile of the AfD’s support. AfD attracted a high number of first-time and younger voters – people who have grown up with European integration, open borders and freedom of movement as part of their normal lives. For Neuhold, this raises a much broader question about the European project. Brussels has spent years trying to communicate the benefits of integration, but Neuhold believes it still struggles to make those benefits tangible:
“I think the EU has been trying to do this, in a sense. We also have to say that this is a very particular part of Germany, and so we cannot extrapolate everything from these elections to other elections. But I do think that the EU seems not to be able to communicate why European integration is of added value. We’ve also seen this with Brexit. There seems to be some kind of sentiment that Europe is not cool. And I always ponder: why is Euroscepticism popular? Why does this gain votes? Why can’t pro-European ideas gain? Why is that not attractive?” she wonders.
“We will need increasingly to join forces to build a more constructive and inclusive Europe, even it is against all odds”, the expert concludes.
Christine Neuhold is full Professor of EU Democratic Governance.
