In her 2026 State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set out the EU’s new geopolitical agenda. She announced a new European Security Strategy and a European Security Council, and called for a Europe that can “stay in the race” in an increasingly volatile world.
Studio Europa asked Hylke Dijkstra, UM Europe Chair and Professor of International Security and Cooperation at Maastricht University, to give his insights on the speech and what it means for Europe in the years ahead.
“This was an elegant and powerful speech by Ursula von der Leyen, one that we rarely see in EU politics. There was a clear master narrative, there was evidence, and there were policy details to match. Von der Leyen noted that Europe is the strongest as it has ever been, while also as precarious as it has ever been. She wants an independent Europe that has the power to act in the world and announced a new European security strategy with a new European Security Council.
Ursula von der Leyen doubled down on her geopolitical agenda. Today’s speech was largely about the volatile world which Europe needs to navigate. Von der Leyen wants Europe to be a player in the worsening geopolitical rat race (“We need to stay in the race”). She wants Europe to compete and Europe to protect. Whether this concerns stepping up support for Ukraine, energy shortages because of Hormuz, making Canada an associate member of the EU, rebalancing of the trade relations with China, responding to climate change and the “never ending summers”, keeping pace with the AI frontier after the Hugging Face incident, or protecting children from social media.
The speech also put noticeably emphasis on norms and values of Europe and Von der Leyen occasionally became personal and emotional in her delivery. She stood up for gender equality (“women are here to stay”), was strict on Israel (Europe needs to “keep the flame of the two-state solution alive”), outraged by the Mladic funeral in Belgrade, and underlined the importance of democracy. Without a doubt, this was the President of Europe speaking in Strasbourg.
“Von der Leyen is clearly not slowing down, quite the opposite”
The 2026 State of the Union comes at an important time. We are now almost halfway through Ursula von der Leyen’s second term in office. So the path she is chartering will define her final years in office. And she is clearly not slowing down, quite the opposite; today’s speech was full of new policy initiatives which will make for a very busy policy agenda for the years to come.
It is in this respect important to also look beyond Brussels and Strasbourg. The AfD landslide election victory in Germany earlier this month has put pressure on the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU. Meanwhile, France will have its presidential elections next spring with Marine Le Pen leading in the polls. It is lame-duck season, even as Emmanuel Macron is trying to safeguard some of his legacy.
In the United States, voters may well put an end to Trumpism at the ballot box for the mid-terms in November. If Democrats take back the Senate and the House, Trump’s potential successors in the Republican Party will soon start preparing their bids for 2028.
Against this background, Von der Leyen’s grip on European and international politics is strong. The fact that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was today in the hemicycle in Strasbourg to listen to the speech is quite telling. Yet she will need the member states to achieve her agenda. On the Multiannual Financial Framework, for instance, Von der Leyen noted that “our budget is about our future”, yet in ongoing negotiations member states are currently chipping away many of the EU ambitions.
Indeed, the clarity of the speech by Ursula von der Leyen today stands in contrast to the more muddled political debates in many of the European member states. Yet those member states will ultimately need to deliver.”
Hylke Dijkstra is recently appointed as the new UM Europe Chair at Studio Europa. He has been Professor of International Security and Cooperation at Maastricht University since 2023. He also coordinates a major European research project and is a member of the European Integration Committee of the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV).
