10 years after Brexit: Why the UK’s relationship with Europe still defines its politics

***Dit expertinterview is in het Engels***

On June 23, 2016, British voters chose to leave the European Union. Yet even ten years after the historic referendum, relations with the EU continue to shape British politics. Studio Europa Maastricht spoke with Michael Shackleton, Emeritus Professor of European Institutions at Maastricht University and former Member of the European Parliament Secretariat, about the new political identities Brexit created and the current state of EU–UK relations.

What began as a vote on EU membership evolved into a broader struggle over identity, sovereignty, and Britain’s place in Europe. According to Michael Shackleton, Brexit produced two enduring political “tribes” — Leavers and Remainers — whose loyalties to their tribe have proved stronger than traditional party loyalties. Reflecting on why Brexit became such a defining and divisive issue in Britain, Shackleton argues that the 2016 referendum differed fundamentally from the earlier UK vote on European membership in 1975. The closeness of the result, combined with uncertainty about what Brexit would mean in practice, created fertile ground for long-term political polarisation, the expert says:

“This was a referendum which was highly contested, and where the result was not accepted by the side that lost as being fully fair and conclusive, because they argued that it did not clarify what the relationship with the EU should be. It only said: we don’t want to be in the EU, but what did we want to be?  It left a lot of strands unresolved. The Conservatives were divided between a Prime Minister who was urging people to vote remain, and others, including Boris Johnson, who campaigned for leaving. And though the Labour Party, in principle, was in favour, it had a leader who was not very enthusiastic and did not want, for example, to appear on the same platform as the Conservatives. In the 1975 referendum the campaign was truly cross-party; in 2016 it was not.  Nor were there the cues that could help a Conservative-leaning voter, for example, to know which way to turn. People didn’t know what the relationship was going to be, they didn’t know what their party really thought, but they had to make a choice.”

Support

Although recent opinion polls suggest that 53% of Britons would now support rejoining the EU, Shackleton cautions against taking these figures at face value. He argues that disappointment with Brexit’s outcomes does not necessarily amount to support for reversing it:

“People have not seen what they hoped for, like the famous bus with the figure about how much money should go to the NHS. But that has not necessarily led to them changing their minds. I think the figure of 53% is actually not nearly high enough to risk a referendum, because it doesn’t face the fact that if we had a referendum, it would be on the basis of terms negotiated, and those terms wouldn’t be the same as the terms that Britain had when it was a member. It would not have the famous budgetary rebate that it negotiated back in 1984. It would be under pressure to say that it would join the euro, at least in principle.  Also, people who were opposed to rejoining would mercilessly drum on about issues like freedom of movement, which is a very hot question in the UK. So, though people may say, yes, we should be in the EU again, if you were to ask them in detail what it is that they are prepared to accept, you might find those numbers were not as firm as they look.”

“Everything points towards Britain becoming more involved with other European countries in defence”

While full EU membership remains politically distant, Shackleton believes closer cooperation between the UK and the EU is likely in certain sectors, particularly defence. Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing uncertainty surrounding the United States’ long-term commitment to European security have fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape, he explains:

“Everything points towards Britain becoming more involved with other European countries in defence. Especially in a world where the United States is not the solid, reliable partner that we were all used to for half a century. The sort of agreement that has been made between the British Navy and the navies in the Baltic States is an example of that, as is the fact that Britain wishes to be involved in the €90 billion loan to Ukraine. So, it seems to me that in specific areas, such agreements are possible.”

Closer integration?

Yet beyond defence, closer integration remains more difficult. Shackleton points to ongoing disputes over youth exchange programmes and university tuition fees as examples of how quickly negotiations become politically sensitive:

“Even with a favourable governmental environment it is quite hard to see which other areas outside defence are ones where Britain and the EU can get closer together, unless we are willing to become more of a rule taker. There is now discussion about the idea that we would, in certain areas, be willing to mirror EU regulations in relation to the single market. But I do not know how far this can go, because the government wants this to happen without there being parliamentary oversight. In other words, governments would simply say: yes, we will follow those rules.

Other EU member states might respond that aligning with rules on agricultural imports is all very well but ask what happens in other areas of the single market, for example, rules on bankers’ bonuses, which Britain scrapped after Brexit. Reintroducing selective alignment while rejecting other parts of the single market would make EU countries reluctant to offer Britain closer access without broader commitments.”

With that in mind, Shakleton expects EU member states to remain cautious about granting Britain selective access to the single market without broader commitments, whether financial or regulatory. From the EU’s perspective, however, there is growing recognition that strategic cooperation with the UK matters. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has intensified debates across Europe about security, strategic autonomy, and the future of transatlantic relations:

“I think the arrival of “Trump 2” has shaken everybody across the European continent a great deal, so that people are asking themselves questions that they did not ask five or ten years ago. It seems clear to me that there are several voices inside the EU, ranging from the Spanish Prime Minister to Donald Tusk in Poland, who agree that as part of this new world, we must imagine a better relationship with Britain.”

Politics

Nevertheless, Brussels remains wary of Britain’s domestic political volatility and the possibility that a future government could reverse any new agreements, the expert underlines:

“They would be reluctant to make concessions which would be easily reversible. That is why there’s this notion of trying to find a way whereby any agreement was not one that could be simply ditched by a new government. I think the direction of travel is towards a closer relationship, but the speed of that movement is very dependent on political changes inside the UK.”

Shackleton argues that the biggest obstacle to renewed cooperation lies not on the centre-left of British politics, where support for closer ties with Europe remains relatively strong, but on the political right. In particular, he points to growing hostility within the Conservative Party not only towards the EU itself, but also towards wider European legal and political frameworks.

“I think the direction of travel is towards a closer relationship, but the speed of that movement is very dependent on political changes inside the UK”

“The movement is in the opposite direction. Opposition to the European Union seems to be getting harder and expanding in scope. Right-wing politicians are saying things like we should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, joining Belarus and Russia. Such a move has been as party policy by the Conservative Party.  It’s quite an extraordinary thing to do if you are in any way wanting to have closer ties with your European neighbours. I think that the parties of the centre right in Europe have a job to do to try to persuade the Conservative Party to soften its position on cooperation with the EU. But at the moment, I don’t see that happening,” he concludes.